Publications

@article{Laepple2022,

title = {Concerns of assuming linearity in the reconstruction of thermal maxima},

author = {T. Laepple and J. Shakun and F. He and S. Marcott},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04831-w},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-04831-w},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-07-27},

urldate = {2022-07-27},

journal = {Nature},

volume = {607},

pages = {E12–E14},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zanowski2022,

title = {Decomposition of deglacial Pacific radiocarbon age controls using an isotope-enabled ocean model},

author = {H. Zanowski and A. Jahn and S. Gu and Z. Liu and T.M. Marchitto},

url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021PA004363},

doi = {10.1029/2021PA004363},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-07-19},

urldate = {2022-07-19},

journal = {Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology},

volume = {37},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{He2022b,

title = {Climate Outcomes of Earth-similar Worlds as a Function of Obliquity and Rotation Rate},

author = {F. He and A. Merrelli and T.S. L'Ecuyer and M. C. Turnbull},

url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ac6951},

doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/ac6951},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-07-04},

urldate = {2022-07-04},

journal = {The Astrophysical Journal},

volume = {993},

number = {1},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{doi.org/10.1002/joc.7737,

title = {Deficient precipitation sensitivity to Sahel land surface forcings among CMIP5 models},

author = {F. Wang and M. Notaro and Y. Yu and J. Mao},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7737},

doi = {10.1002/joc.7737},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-05-25},

urldate = {2022-05-25},

journal = {International Journal of Climatology},

pages = {1-24},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Vavrus2022b,

title = {Did agriculture beget agriculture during the past several millennia?},

author = {S. J. Vavrus and C. Kucharik and F. He and J. E. Kutzbach and W. F. Ruddiman},

url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09596836221088231},

doi = {10.1177/09596836221088231},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-05-01},

urldate = {2022-05-01},

journal = { The Holocene},

volume = {32},

issue = {7},

pages = {680-689},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Notaro2022,

title = {Representation of lake-atmosphere interactions and lake-effect snowfall in the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin among HighResMIP global climate models},

author = {M. Notaro and M. J. Jorns and L. Briley},

url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/atsc/79/5/JAS-D-21-0249.1.xml},

doi = {10.1175/JAS-D-21-0249.1},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-04-20},

urldate = {2022-04-20},

journal = {Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences},

volume = {79},

issue = {5},

pages = {1325-1347},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{He2022,

title = {Freshwater forcing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation revisited},

author = {F. He and P. U. Clark},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01328-2},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-022-01328-2},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-04-07},

urldate = {2022-04-07},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {12},

pages = {449–454},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Vavrus2022,

title = {Rainy season precipitation forecasts in coastal Peru from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)},

author = {S. J. Vavrus and F. Wang and P. Block},

url = {https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/joc.7586},

doi = {10.1002/joc.7586},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-02-23},

urldate = {2022-02-23},

journal = {International Journal of Climatology},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Vavrus2021,

title = {Future trends of Arctic surface wind speeds and their relationship with sea ice in CMIP5 climate model simulations},

author = {S. J. Vavrus and R. Alkama},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-021-06071-6},

doi = {10.1007/s00382-021-06071-6},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-12-02},

urldate = {2021-12-02},

journal = {Climate Dynamics},

volume = {59},

pages = {1833-1848},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{doi.org/10.1002/joc.7434,

title = {Extreme minimum temperatures in the Great Lakes region of the United States: A climatology with implications for insect mortality.},

author = {M.T. Kiefer and J.A. Andresen and D.G. McCullough and W.J. Baule and M. Notaro},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7434},

doi = {10.1002/joc.7434},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-29},

urldate = {2021-10-29},

journal = {International Journal of Climatology},

pages = {1-20},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Francis2021,

title = {How is rapid Arctic warming influencing weather patterns in lower latitudes?},

author = {J. Francis and S. Vavrus},

url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15230430.2021.1942400},

doi = {10.1080/15230430.2021.1942400},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-12},

urldate = {2021-10-12},

journal = {Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research},

volume = {53},

issue = {1},

pages = {219-220},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {When will the Arctic Ocean become ice-free?},

author = {S. J. Vavrus and M. M. Holland},

url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15230430.2021.1941578},

doi = {10.1080/15230430.2021.1941578},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-10-12},

urldate = {2021-10-12},

journal = {Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research},

volume = {53},

issue = {1},

pages = {217-218},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0025.1,

title = {Cold season performance of the NU-WRF regional climate model in the Great Lakes region. },

author = {M. Notaro and Y. Zhong and P. Xue and C. Peters-Lidard and C. Cruz and E. Kemp and D. Kristovich and M. Kulie and J. Wang and C. Huang and S.V. Vavrus},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-21-0025.1},

doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-21-0025.1},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-14},

urldate = {2021-09-14},

journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology},

volume = {22},

pages = {2423-2454},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{doi:10.1080/07900627.2020.1745159,

title = {Forecast-informed reservoir operations to guide hydropower and agriculture allocations in the Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia},

author = {Sarah Alexander and Guang Yang and Girmachew Addisu and Paul Block},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2020.1745159},

doi = {10.1080/07900627.2020.1745159},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-05-18},

journal = {International Journal of Water Resources Development},

volume = {37},

number = {2},

pages = {208-233},

publisher = {Routledge},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{doi:10.1007/s10933-021-00188-8,

title = {The ecology of testate amoebae and Cladocera in Hawaiian montane peatlands and development of a hydrological transfer function},

author = {Kevin D. Barrett and Patricia Sanford and Sara C. Hotchkiss 

},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-021-00188-8},

doi = {10.1007/s10933-021-00188-8},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-04-08},

urldate = {2021-04-08},

journal = {Journal of Paleolimnology},

volume = {66},

number = {2},

pages = {83–101},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Peters2021,

title = {Long-Term Evolution of Earth's Continental Surface Elevation},

author = {Shanan E Peters and David B Rowley},

url = {https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/2168/},

doi = {10.31223/X59608},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-03-17},

journal = {EarthArXiv},

abstract = {Determining the timescale over which continental surface elevation (hypsometry) evolves is difficult because it reflects a combination of isostasy and dynamic topography operating in concert with erosion and deposition. Here, we use 252 million year old and younger shallow marine sediments exposed at the surface as tracers of net change in continental surface elevation over time. In aggregate, we find that the elevations of Triassic and younger surface-exposed shallow marine sediments closely mirror global continental hypsometry. However, dispersion in the elevations of marine sediments increases with increasing depositional age away from a constant modal elevation of ~0 m. This empirical age-elevation relationship is consistent with the expectations of a diffusion model, wherein shallow marine sediments are continually deposited near 0 m in the submerged and initially subsiding regions of the continents and then undergo vertical displacements down and up with a constant stochastic distribution of rates. When such a model is tuned to empirical age-elevation data, an asymptotically-stable distribution of surface elevations congruent with observed continental hypsometry emerges on a timescale of 10^7-10^8 years.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Lipp2021,

title = {The composition and weathering of the continents over geologic time},

author = {A.G. Lipp and et al},

url = {http://www.geochemicalperspectivesletters.org/article2109},

doi = {10.7185/geochemlet.2109},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-03-02},

journal = {Geochemical Perspectives Letters},

volume = {17},

pages = {21-26},

abstract = {The composition of continental crust records the balance between construction by tectonics and destruction by physical and chemical erosion. Quantitative constraints on how igneous addition and chemical weathering have modified the continents’ bulk composition are essential for understanding the evolution of geodynamics and climate. Using novel data analytic techniques we have extracted temporal trends in sediments’ protolith composition and weathering intensity from the largest available compilation of sedimentary major element compositions: ∼15,000 samples from 4.0 Ga to the present. We find that the average Archean upper continental crust was silica-rich and had a similar compositional diversity to modern continents. This is consistent with an early Archean, or earlier, onset of plate tectonics. In the Archean, chemical weathering sequestered ∼25 % more CO2 per mass eroded for the same weathering intensity than in subsequent time periods, consistent with carbon mass balance despite higher Archean outgassing rates and more limited continental exposure. Since 2.0 Ga, over long (>0.5 Gyr) timescales, crustal weathering intensity has remained relatively constant. On shorter timescales over the Phanerozoic, weathering intensity is correlated to global climate state, consistent with a weathering feedback acting in response to changes in CO2 sources or sinks.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Williams2021,

title = {A unifying framework for studying and managing climate-driven rates of ecological change},

author = {John W. Williams and Alejandro Ordonez and Jens-Christian Svenning},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-020-01344-5},

doi = {10.1038/s41559-020-01344-5},

issn = {2397-334X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Nature Ecology & Evolution},

volume = {5},

number = {1},

pages = {17-26},

abstract = {During the Anthropocene and other eras of rapidly changing climates, rates of change of ecological systems can be described as fast, slow or abrupt. Fast ecological responses closely track climate change, slow responses substantively lag climate forcing, causing disequilibria and reduced fitness, and abrupt responses are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses at rates that are large relative to background variability and forcing. All three kinds of climate-driven ecological dynamics are well documented in contemporary studies, palaeoecology and invasion biology. This fast–slow–abrupt conceptual framework helps unify a bifurcated climate-change literature, which tends to separately consider the ecological risks posed by slow or abrupt ecological dynamics. Given the prospect of ongoing climate change for the next several decades to centuries of the Anthropocene and wide variations in ecological rates of change, the theory and practice of managing ecological systems should shift attention from target states to target rates. A rates-focused framework broadens the strategic menu for managers to include options to both slow and accelerate ecological rates of change, seeks to reduce mismatch among climate and ecological rates of change, and provides a unified conceptual framework for tackling the distinct risks associated with fast, slow and abrupt ecological rates of change.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{BRILEY2021405,

title = {Large lakes in climate models: A Great Lakes case study on the usability of CMIP5},

author = {Laura J Briley and Richard B Rood and Michael Notaro},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0380133021000289},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2021.01.010},

issn = {0380-1330},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Great Lakes Research},

volume = {47},

number = {2},

pages = {405-418},

abstract = {Large lakes have an impact on regional weather. In addition, they can be both sensitive to and influence regional climate changes. In the climate models that are used to investigate future climate changes, lakes are greatly simplified and sometimes absent. At the regional scale, this can have strong implications for the quality of the model information about the future. Through our work with climate information users in the Laurentian Great Lakes region, we have found that basic credibility of the information requires the underlying climate models simulate lake-atmosphere-land interactions. We are not aware of efforts within the scientific community to make known how individual large lakes are represented in models and how those representations translate to the quality of the data for particular regions. We share our framework for identifying how the Laurentian Great Lakes are represented in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) version 5 climate models. We found that most CMIP5 models do not simulate the Great Lakes in a way that captures their impact on the regional climate, which is a credibility issue for their projections. We provide a perspective on the usability of CMIP5 for practitioners in the Great Lakes region and offer recommendations for alternative options.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{acp-21-951-2021,

title = {Aircraft-based inversions quantify the importance of wetlands and livestock for Upper Midwest methane emissions},

author = {X Yu and D B Millet and K C Wells and D K Henze and H Cao and T J Griffis and E A Kort and G Plant and M J Deventer and R K Kolka and D T Roman and K J Davis and A R Desai and B C Baier and K McKain and A C Czarnetzki and A A Bloom},

url = {https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/21/951/2021/},

doi = {10.5194/acp-21-951-2021},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics},

volume = {21},

number = {2},

pages = {951--971},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}