Publications

@article{Beal2024,

title = {A Machine Learning and Remote Sensing-Based Model for Algae Pigment and Dissolved Oxygen Retrieval on a Small Inland Lake},

author = {Maxwell R. W. Beal and Mutlu Özdoğan and Paul J. Block},

doi = {10.1029/2023WR035744},

year  = {2024},

date = {2024-02-28},

journal = {Water Resources Research},

volume = {60},

issue = {3},

pages = {e2023WR035744},

abstract = {Excessive algae growth can lead to negative consequences for ecosystem function, economic opportunity, and human and animal health. Due to the cost-effectiveness and temporal availability of satellite imagery, remote sensing has become a powerful tool for water quality monitoring. The use of remotely sensed products to monitor water quality related to algae and cyanobacteria productivity during a bloom event may help inform management strategies for inland waters. To evaluate the ability of satellite imagery to monitor algae pigments and dissolved oxygen conditions in a small inland lake, chlorophyll-a, phycocyanin, and dissolved oxygen concentrations are measured using a YSI EXO2 sonde during Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 overpasses from 2019 to 2022 on Lake Mendota, WI. Machine learning methods are implemented with existing algorithms to model chlorophyll-a, phycocyanin, and Pc:Chla. A novel machine learning-based dissolved oxygen modeling approach is developed using algae pigment concentrations as predictors. Best model results based on Sentinel-2 (Sentinel-3) imagery achieved R2 scores of 0.47 (0.42) for chlorophyll-a, 0.69 (0.22) for phycocyanin, and 0.70 (0.41) for Pc:Chla. Dissolved oxygen models achieved an R2 of 0.68 (0.36) when applied to Sentinel-2 (Sentinel-3) imagery, and Pc:Chla is found to be the most important predictive feature. Random forest models are better suited to water quality estimations in this system given built in methods for feature selection and a relatively small data set. Use of these approaches for estimation of Pc:Chla and dissolved oxygen can increase the water quality information extracted from satellite imagery and improve characterization of algae conditions among inland waters.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Hu2023,

title = {Dichotomy between freshwater and heat flux effects on oceanic conveyor belt stability and global climate},

author = {Aixue Hu and Gerald A. Meehl and Ayako Abe-Ouchi and Weiqing Han and Bette Otto-Bliesner and Feng He and Tongwen Wu and Nan Rosenbloom and Warren G. Strand and James Edwards },

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00916-0},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00916-0},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-07-10},

journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},

volume = {4},

pages = {246},

abstract = {The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is an important global-scale oceanic circulation, and its changes may be responsible for past abrupt climate change events. By using two versions of a coupled climate model, here we show that the stability of this circulation depends not only on the background climate, but also on the type of primary external forcing: freshwater vs. greenhouse gases. When freshwater forcing is dominant, hysteresis of this circulation (an abrupt collapse/reactivation) becomes possible only under simulated glacial conditions with closed Bering Strait. Under present day and future conditions, both freshwater and greenhouse gas forcings could collapse this circulation, but only greenhouse gas forcing produced a bi-stable equilibrium state comparable to abrupt climate change. Our results demonstrate that the Bering Strait status (open vs. closed) may facilitate or prohibit the existence of this circulation’s hysteresis, irrespective of the background climate conditions, but is directly related to the primary forcing.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Castagno2023,

title = {Increased sea ice melt as a driver of enhanced Arctic phytoplankton blooming},

author = {Andrew P. Castagno and Till J. W. Wagner and Mattias R. Cape and Conner W. Lester and Elizabeth Bailey and Catharina Alves-de-Souza and Robert A. York and Alyson H. Fleming},

url = {https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/gcb.16815},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16815},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-06-18},

journal = {Global Change Biology },

volume = {00},

pages = {1-12},

abstract = {Phytoplankton primary production in the Arctic Ocean has been increasing over the last two decades. In 2019, a record spring bloom occurred in Fram Strait, characterized by a peak in chlorophyll that was reached weeks earlier than in other years and was larger than any previously recorded May bloom. Here, we consider the conditions that led to this event and examine drivers of spring phytoplankton blooms in Fram Strait using in situ, remote sensing, and data assimilation methods. From samples collected during the May 2019 bloom, we observe a direct relationship between sea ice meltwater in the upper water column and chlorophyll a pigment concentrations. We place the 2019 spring dynamics in context of the past 20 years, a period marked by rapid change in climatic conditions. Our findings suggest that increased advection of sea ice into the region and warmer surface temperatures led to a rise in meltwater input and stronger near-surface stratification. Over this time period, we identify large-scale spatial correlations in Fram Strait between increased chlorophyll a concentrations and increased freshwater flux from sea ice melt.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Roach2023,

title = {Asymmetry in the Seasonal Cycle of Zonal-Mean Surface Air Temperature},

author = {Lettie A. Roach and Ian Eisenman and Till J. W. Wagner and Aaron Donohoe},

url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2023GL103403},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103403},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-05-13},

urldate = {2023-05-13},

journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},

volume = {50},

issue = {10},

pages = {e2023GL103403},

abstract = {At most latitudes, the seasonal cycle of zonal-mean surface air temperature is notably asymmetric: the length of the warming season is not equal to the length of the cooling season. The asymmetry varies spatially, with the cooling season being ∼40 days shorter than the warming season in the subtropics and the warming season being ∼100 days shorter than the cooling season at the poles. Furthermore, the asymmetry differs between the Northern Hemisphere and the Southern Hemisphere. Here, we show that these observed features are broadly captured in a simple model for the evolution of temperature forced by realistic insolation. The model suggests that Earth's orbital eccentricity largely determines the hemispheric contrast, and obliquity broadly dictates the meridional structure. Clouds, atmospheric heat flux convergence, and time-invariant effective surface heat capacity have minimal impacts on seasonal asymmetry. This simple, first-order picture has been absent from previous discussions of the surface temperature seasonal cycle.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Beer2023,

title = {A Possible Hysteresis in the Arctic Ocean due to Release of Subsurface Heat during Sea Ice Retreat},

author = {Emma Beer and Ian Eisenman and Till J. W. Wagner and Elizabeth C. Fine},

url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/phoc/53/5/JPO-D-22-0131.1.xml},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-22-0131.1},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-05-01},

urldate = {2023-05-01},

journal = {Journal of Physical Oceanography},

volume = {53},

issue = {5},

pages = {1323-1335},

abstract = {The Arctic Ocean is characterized by an ice-covered layer of cold and relatively fresh water above layers of warmer and saltier water. It is estimated that enough heat is stored in these deeper layers to melt all the Arctic sea ice many times over, but they are isolated from the surface by a stable halocline. Current vertical mixing rates across the Arctic Ocean halocline are small, due in part to sea ice reducing wind–ocean momentum transfer and damping internal waves. However, recent observational studies have argued that sea ice retreat results in enhanced mixing. This could create a positive feedback whereby increased vertical mixing due to sea ice retreat causes the previously isolated subsurface heat to melt more sea ice. Here, we use an idealized climate model to investigate the impacts of such a feedback. We find that an abrupt “tipping point” can occur under global warming, with an associated hysteresis window bounded by saddle-node bifurcations. We show that the presence and magnitude of the hysteresis are sensitive to the choice of model parameters, and the hysteresis occurs for only a limited range of parameters. During the critical transition at the bifurcation point, we find that only a small percentage of the heat stored in the deep layer is released, although this is still enough to lead to substantial sea ice melt. Furthermore, no clear relationship is apparent between this change in heat storage and the level of hysteresis when the parameters are varied.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Clare2023b,

title = {Extratropical Cyclone Response to Projected Reductions in Snow Extent over the Great Plains},

author = {Ryan M. Clare and Ankur R. Desai and Jonathan E. Martin and Michael Notaro and Stephen J. Vavrus},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050783},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-04-26},

journal = {Atmosphere},

volume = {14},

issue = {5},

pages = {783},

abstract = {Extratropical cyclones develop in regions of enhanced baroclinicity and progress along climatological storm tracks. Numerous studies have noted an influence of terrestrial snow cover on atmospheric baroclinicity. However, these studies have less typically examined the role that continental snow cover extent and changes anticipated with anthropogenic climate change have on cyclones’ intensities, trajectories, and precipitation characteristics. Here, we examined how projected future poleward shifts in North American snow extent influence extratropical cyclones. We imposed 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile values of snow retreat between the late 20th and 21st centuries as projected by 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) models to alter snow extent underlying 15 historical cold-season cyclones that tracked over the North American Great Plains and were faithfully reproduced in control model cases, providing a comprehensive set of model runs to evaluate hypotheses. Simulations by the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF-ARW) were initialized at four days prior to cyclogenesis. Cyclone trajectories moved on average poleward (μ = 27 +/− σ = 17 km) in response to reduced snow extent while the maximum sea-level pressure deepened (μ = −0.48 +/− σ = 0.8 hPa) with greater snow removed. A significant linear correlation was observed between the area of snow removed and mean trajectory deviation (r2 = 0.23), especially in mid-winter (r2 = 0.59), as well as a similar relationship for maximum change in sea-level pressure (r2 = 0.17). Across all simulations, 82% of the perturbed simulation cyclones decreased in average central sea-level pressure (SLP) compared to the corresponding control simulation. Near-surface wind speed increased, as did precipitation, in 86% of cases with a preferred phase change from the solid to liquid state due to warming, although the trends did not correlate with the snow retreat magnitude. Our results, consistent with prior studies noting some role for the enhanced baroclinity of the snow line in modulating storm track and intensity, provide a benchmark to evaluate future snow cover retreat impacts on mid-latitude weather systems.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Clare2023,

title = {Extratropical Cyclone Response to Projected Reductions in Snow Extent over the Great Plains},

author = {Ryan M. Clare and Ankur R. Desai and Jonathan E. Martin and Michael Notaro and Stephen J. Vavrus },

doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050783},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-04-26},

journal = {Atmosphere},

volume = {14},

issue = {5},

pages = {783},

abstract = {Extratropical cyclones develop in regions of enhanced baroclinicity and progress along climatological storm tracks. Numerous studies have noted an influence of terrestrial snow cover on atmospheric baroclinicity. However, these studies have less typically examined the role that continental snow cover extent and changes anticipated with anthropogenic climate change have on cyclones’ intensities, trajectories, and precipitation characteristics. Here, we examined how projected future poleward shifts in North American snow extent influence extratropical cyclones. We imposed 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile values of snow retreat between the late 20th and 21st centuries as projected by 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) models to alter snow extent underlying 15 historical cold-season cyclones that tracked over the North American Great Plains and were faithfully reproduced in control model cases, providing a comprehensive set of model runs to evaluate hypotheses. Simulations by the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF-ARW) were initialized at four days prior to cyclogenesis. Cyclone trajectories moved on average poleward (μ = 27 +/− σ = 17 km) in response to reduced snow extent while the maximum sea-level pressure deepened (μ = −0.48 +/− σ = 0.8 hPa) with greater snow removed. A significant linear correlation was observed between the area of snow removed and mean trajectory deviation (r2 = 0.23), especially in mid-winter (r2 = 0.59), as well as a similar relationship for maximum change in sea-level pressure (r2 = 0.17). Across all simulations, 82% of the perturbed simulation cyclones decreased in average central sea-level pressure (SLP) compared to the corresponding control simulation. Near-surface wind speed increased, as did precipitation, in 86% of cases with a preferred phase change from the solid to liquid state due to warming, although the trends did not correlate with the snow retreat magnitude. Our results, consistent with prior studies noting some role for the enhanced baroclinity of the snow line in modulating storm track and intensity, provide a benchmark to evaluate future snow cover retreat impacts on mid-latitude weather systems.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Sutheimer2023,

title = {Climate forcing of regional fire years in the upper Great Lakes Region, USA},

author = {Colleen M. Sutheimer and Jed Meunier and Igor Drobyshev and Michael C. Stambaugh and Sara C. Hotchkiss and Eric Rebitzke and Volker C. Radeloff},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1071/WF22205},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-03-16},

journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},

volume = {32},

pages = {796-813},

abstract = {Background: Drivers of fire regimes vary among spatial scales, and fire history reconstructions are often limited to stand scales, making it difficult to partition effects of regional climate forcing versus individual site histories.



Aims: To evaluate regional-scale historical fire regimes over 350 years, we analysed an extensive fire-scar network, spanning 240 km across the upper Great Lakes Region in North America.



Methods: We estimated fire frequency, identified regionally widespread fire years (based on the fraction of fire-scarred tree samples, fire extent index (FEI), and synchronicity of fire years), and evaluated fire seasonality and climate–fire relationships.



Key results: Historically, fire frequency and seasonality were variable within and among Great Lakes’ ecoregions. Climate forcing at regional scales resulted in synchronised fires, primarily during the late growing season, which were ubiquitous across the upper Great Lakes Region. Regionally significant fire years included 1689, 1752, 1754, 1791, and 1891.



Conclusions: We found significant climate forcing of region-wide fire regimes in the upper Great Lakes Region.



Implications: Historically, reoccurring fires in the upper Great Lakes Region were instrumental for shaping and maintaining forest resilience. The climate conditions that helped promote widespread fire years historically may be consistent with anticipated climate–fire interactions due to climate change.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Batchelor2023,

title = {Decadal warming events extended into central North America during the last glacial period},

author = {C. J. Batchelor and S. A. Marcott and I. J. Orland and F. He and R. L. Edwards},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01132-3},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01132-3},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-03-02},

journal = {Nature Geoscience },

volume = {16},

pages = {257–261},

abstract = {The connection between abrupt high-latitude warming during the last glacial period—Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events—and rapid climate changes at lower latitudes has revealed inter-hemispheric teleconnections in the ocean–atmosphere system. Links between DO events and climate variability in mid-latitude, mid-continent settings remain, however, poorly understood, especially in North America where climate archives with sufficient time resolution are scarce. Here we examine a speleothem that grew from ~70–50 thousand years ago (ka) in Wisconsin (United States) and combine fluorescent imaging of its growth banding with an annual-resolution oxygen isotope (δ18O) record. Eight large (2.0–3.0‰) negative δ18O excursions, each with an onset in <10 annual growth bands, occur between 61–55 ka, when DO events 17–14 are recorded in the ice core of the North Greenland Ice Core Project. Although the age model does not allow these δ18O excursions to be matched to specific DO events, their magnitude and rapid onset support a credible link. Isotope-enabled climate simulations suggest that abrupt DO warming would increase the δ18O of annual precipitation in the study area and corroborate that warming of >10 °C in <10 years is thus required to produce the observed negative δ18O excursions. Our findings of expansive abrupt DO warming in central North America has implications for environmental, climate and ice sheet dynamics.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Yu2023,

title = {Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene},

author = {Yanyan Yu and Feng He and Stephen J. Vavrus and Amber Johnson and Haibin Wu and Wenchao Zhang and Qiuzhen Yin and Junyi Ge and Chenglong Deng and Michael D. Petraglia and Zhengtang Guo},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818123000279},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104054},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-02-01},

journal = {Global and Planetary Change},

volume = {221},

pages = {104054},

abstract = {Archaeological records document a significant expansion of populations from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼23–19 ka) to the early Holocene (EH, ∼9 ka) in Eurasia, which is often attributed to the influence of orbital-scale climate changes. Yet, information remains limited concerning the climatic factor(s) which were responsible for conditioning demographic patterns. Here, we present results from an improved Minimalist Terrestrial Resource Model (MTRM), forced by a transient climate simulation from the LGM to the EH. Simulated potential hunter-gatherer population densities and spatial distributions across Eurasia are supported by observed archaeological sites in Europe and China. In the low latitudes, potential population size change was predominantly controlled by precipitation and its strong influence on plant and animal resources. In the middle-high latitudes, temperature was the dominant driver in influencing potential population size change and animal resource availability. Different regional responses of potential populations to climate change across Eurasia - owing to variations in available food resources between the LGM and EH - provide a better understanding of human dispersal during the Late Pleistocene.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Yu2023b,

title = {Climatic factors and human population changes in Eurasia between the Last Glacial Maximum and the early Holocene},

author = {Yanyan Yu and Feng He and Stephen J. Vavrus and Amber Johnson and Haibin Wu and Wenchao Zhang and Qiuzhen Yin and Junyi Ge and Chenglong Deng and Michael D. Petraglia and Zhengtang Guo},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104054},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-02-01},

journal = {Global and Planetary Change},

volume = {221},

pages = {104054},

abstract = {Archaeological records document a significant expansion of populations from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼23–19 ka) to the early Holocene (EH, ∼9 ka) in Eurasia, which is often attributed to the influence of orbital-scale climate changes. Yet, information remains limited concerning the climatic factor(s) which were responsible for conditioning demographic patterns. Here, we present results from an improved Minimalist Terrestrial Resource Model (MTRM), forced by a transient climate simulation from the LGM to the EH. Simulated potential hunter-gatherer population densities and spatial distributions across Eurasia are supported by observed archaeological sites in Europe and China. In the low latitudes, potential population size change was predominantly controlled by precipitation and its strong influence on plant and animal resources. In the middle-high latitudes, temperature was the dominant driver in influencing potential population size change and animal resource availability. Different regional responses of potential populations to climate change across Eurasia - owing to variations in available food resources between the LGM and EH - provide a better understanding of human dispersal during the Late Pleistocene.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Beal2023,

title = {Large scale seasonal forecasting of peak season algae metrics in the Midwest and Northeast U.S.},

author = {Maxwell R.W. Beal and Grace M. Wilkinson and Paul J. Block},

url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0043135422013471},

doi = {10.1016/j.watres.2022.119402},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-02-01},

journal = {Water Research},

volume = {229},

pages = {119402},

abstract = {In recent decades, many inland lakes have seen an increase in the prevalence of potentially harmful algae. In many inland lakes, the peak season for algae abundance (summer and early fall in the northern hemisphere) coincides with the peak season for recreational use. Currently, little information regarding expected algae conditions is available prior to the peak season for productivity in inland lakes. Peak season algae conditions are influenced by an array of pre-season (spring and early summer) local and global scale variables; identifying these variables for forecast development may be useful in managing potential public health threats posed by harmful algae. Using the LAGOS-NE dataset, pre-season local and global drivers of peak-season algae metrics (represented by chlorophyll-a) are identified for 178 lakes across the Northeast and Midwest U.S. from readily available gridded datasets. Forecasting models are built for each lake conditioned on relevant pre-season predictors. Forecasts are assessed for the magnitude, severity, and duration of seasonal chlorophyll concentrations. Regions of pre-season sea surface temperature, and pre-season chlorophyll-a demonstrate the most predictive power for peak season algae metrics, and resulting models show significant skill. Based on categorical forecast metrics, more than 70% of magnitude models and 90% of duration models outperform climatology.  Forecasts of high and severe algae magnitude perform best in large mesotrophic and oligotrophic lakes, however, high algae duration performance appears less dependent on lake characteristics. The advance notice of elevated algae biomass provided by these models may allow lake managers to better prepare for challenges posed by algae during the high use season for inland lakes.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{nokey,

title = {Measuring “Weather Whiplash” Events in North America: A New Large-Scale Regime Approach},

author = {Jennifer A. Francis and Natasa Skific and Steven J. Vavrus and Judah Cohen

},

doi = { https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036717},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-09-07},

journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},

volume = {127},

issue = {17},

pages = {e2022JD036717},

abstract = {The term “weather whiplash” was recently coined to describe abrupt swings in weather conditions from one extreme to another, such as from a prolonged, frigid cold spell to anomalous warmth or from drought to heavy precipitation. These events are often highly disruptive to agriculture, ecosystems, and daily activities. In this study, we propose and demonstrate a novel metric to identify weather whiplash events (WWEs) and track their frequency over time. We define a WWE as a transition from one persistent continental-scale circulation regime to another distinctly different pattern, as determined using an objective pattern clustering analysis called self-organizing maps. We focus on the domain spanning North America and the eastern N. Pacific Ocean. A matrix of representative atmospheric patterns in 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies is created from 72 years of daily fields. We analyze the occurrence of WWEs originating with long-duration events (LDEs) (defined as lasting four or more days) in each pattern, as well as the associated extremes in temperature and precipitation. A WWE is detected when the pattern 2 days following a LDE is substantially different, measured using internal matrix distances and thresholds. Changes in WWE frequency are assessed objectively based on reanalysis and historical climate model simulations, and for the future using climate model projections. Temporal changes in the future under representative concentration pathway 8.5 forcing are more robust than those in recent decades. We find consistent increases in WWEs originating in patterns with an anomalously warm Arctic and decreases in cold-Arctic patterns.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Laepple2022,

title = {Concerns of assuming linearity in the reconstruction of thermal maxima},

author = {T. Laepple and J. Shakun and F. He and S. Marcott},

url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-04831-w},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-04831-w},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-07-27},

urldate = {2022-07-27},

journal = {Nature},

volume = {607},

pages = {E12–E14},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Zanowski2022,

title = {Decomposition of deglacial Pacific radiocarbon age controls using an isotope-enabled ocean model},

author = {H. Zanowski and A. Jahn and S. Gu and Z. Liu and T.M. Marchitto},

url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2021PA004363},

doi = {10.1029/2021PA004363},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-07-19},

urldate = {2022-07-19},

journal = {Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology},

volume = {37},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{He2022b,

title = {Climate Outcomes of Earth-similar Worlds as a Function of Obliquity and Rotation Rate},

author = {F. He and A. Merrelli and T.S. L'Ecuyer and M. C. Turnbull},

url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ac6951},

doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/ac6951},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-07-04},

urldate = {2022-07-04},

journal = {The Astrophysical Journal},

volume = {993},

number = {1},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Beal2022,

title = {Variability of summer cyanobacteria abundance: can season-ahead forecasts improve beach management?},

author = {Maxwell R. W. Beal and Bryan E. O’Reilly and Caitlin K. Soley and Kaitlynn R. Hietpas and Paul J. Block},

doi = {10.1080/10402381.2022.2084799},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-06-23},

journal = {Lake and Reservoir Management},

volume = {39},

number = {1},

pages = {37-52},

abstract = {As anthropogenic eutrophication and the associated increase of cyanobacteria continue to plague inland waterbodies, local officials are seeking novel methods to proactively manage water resources. Cyanobacteria are of particular concern to health officials due to their ability to produce dangerous hepatotoxins and neurotoxins, which can threaten waterbodies for recreational and drinking-water purposes. Presently, however, there is no cyanobacteria outlook that can provide advance warning of a potential threat at the seasonal time scale. In this study, a statistical model is developed utilizing local and global scale season-ahead hydroclimatic predictors to evaluate the potential for informative cyanobacteria biomass and associated beach closure forecasts across the June–August season for a eutrophic lake in Wisconsin (United States). This model is developed as part of a subseasonal to seasonal cyanobacteria forecasting system to optimize lake management across the peak cyanobacteria season. Model skill is significant in comparison to June–August cyanobacteria observations (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.62, Heidke skill score = 0.38). The modeling framework proposed here demonstrates encouraging prediction skill and offers the possibility of advanced beach management applications.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Russell2022,

title = {Integrating tropical research into biology education is urgently needed},

author = {Ann E. Russell and T. Mitchell Aide and Elizabeth Braker and Carissa N. Ganong and Rebecca D. Hardin and Karen D. Holl and Sara C. Hotchkiss and Jeffrey A. Klemens and Erin K. Kuprewicz and Deedra McClearn and George Middendorf and Rebecca Ostertag and Jennifer S. Powers and Charles G. Willis},

doi = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pbio.3001674},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-06-16},

journal = {PLoS Biology },

volume = {20},

issue = {6},

pages = {e3001674},

abstract = {Understanding tropical biology is important for solving complex problems such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and zoonotic pandemics, but biology curricula view research mostly via a temperate-zone lens. Integrating tropical research into biology education is urgently needed to tackle these issues.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{doi.org/10.1002/joc.7737,

title = {Deficient precipitation sensitivity to Sahel land surface forcings among CMIP5 models},

author = {F. Wang and M. Notaro and Y. Yu and J. Mao},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7737},

doi = {10.1002/joc.7737},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-05-25},

urldate = {2022-05-25},

journal = {International Journal of Climatology},

pages = {1-24},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Vavrus2022b,

title = {Did agriculture beget agriculture during the past several millennia?},

author = {S. J. Vavrus and C. Kucharik and F. He and J. E. Kutzbach and W. F. Ruddiman},

url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09596836221088231},

doi = {10.1177/09596836221088231},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-05-01},

urldate = {2022-05-01},

journal = { The Holocene},

volume = {32},

issue = {7},

pages = {680-689},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}