Speaker: Adam Sobel, Professor of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics and of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University
Information on climate risk is needed for adaptation. The information produced by traditional climate science is generally not quite fit for purpose; an additional layer of science is generally needed on top of typical Earth system model output. Downscaling, bias correction, impact modeling, and decision support are all parts of it; characterization of uncertainty is also important, including deep uncertainties that are hard to quantify. This “climate risk science” (so called by me because of the importance of extremes and the inherently probabilistic nature of the information) has been practiced in academia and government, but the private sector so far has arguably been more organized and focused about it. Private sector products, however, are generally expensive, proprietary, and in many cases opaque or “black box.” The result is a situation in whichmany users of the information are confused and adaptation is inhibited. I will argue for a more organized effort to develop usable climate risk science, especially for public sector applications, and outline one concrete proposal towards this end. A few recent research results on hurricane risk under climate change will be used to illustrate specific points, with particular focus on current uncertainty around trends in the tropical Pacific.Please note the different than usual date, time, and location.