Speaker: Paul Buchmann, Wisconsin State Climatology Office
Subseasonal forecasts predict one- or two-week mean temperature patterns up to 6 weeks in advance. These tend to have relatively low skill, but accurate forecasts at this time scale can be beneficial for public health, agriculture, and water management. To make subseasonal forecasts, we often rely heavily on climate mechanisms that are themselves predictable and that are known to impact temperature. These sources of predictability include ENSO, the MJO, and the PNA. Looking at the historical side of these sources of predictability, all of them were first discovered and then later their impact on predictability was established. This leaves us with the question – have we missed a source of predictability? Something that may not be as obvious as ENSO or the MJO, but that nevertheless impacts subseasonal temperatures? This talk will summarize recent research and focus on identifying predictability in US temperatures during the summer.