Speaker: Erin Dougherty, project scientist, National Center for Atmospheric Research, National Science Foundation
Quantifying the relationship between storm types, antecedent conditions, and flood extent is crucial to improve hydrometeorological forecasts and mitigate against flood risk. This talk will explore the connection between storms, soil moisture, and snowmelt in producing local versus regional floods in the U.S.
Dougherty will explain recent research, where the dominant storm-type producing floods-mesoscale convective systems-are explored in a warmer climate using an ensemble of convection-permitting simulations over the Midwest. She will explain how future rainfall increases from these storms mainly emanates from convective areas, which could increase future flood risk.