Plot future projected trends in climate over the Midwest U.S. and Great Lakes Basin using CMIP5 dynamically downscaled data.
Contact: Michael Notaro, mnotaro@wisc.edu
Period of Change
Model
Variable
Projected change in Temperature (F) by the Mid 21st Century from the CNRM-RegCM4 model
Six global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) have been dynamically downscaled to 25-km grid spacing according to the RCP8.5 scenario using the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) Regional Climate Model Version Four (RegCM4).
These GCMs include the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model Version Five (CNRM-CM5), the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate Version Five (MIROC5), the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Coupled Model Version Five-Medium Resolution (IPSL-CM5-MR), the Meteorological Research Institute Coupled Global Climate Model Version Three (MRI-CGCM3), the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Australia GCM (ACCESS1-0), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model (GFDL-ESM2M).
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References
Notaro, M., V. Bennington, and S. Vavrus, 2015: Dynamically downscaled projections of lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes Basin. Journal of Climate, 28, 1661-1684.
Notaro, M., V. Bennington, and B. Lofgren, 2015: Dynamical downscaling-based projections of Great Lakes’ water levels. Journal of Climate, 28, 9721-9745.
Acknowledgements
The downscaling was funded by grants and contracts from NOAA/Climate Change Data and Detection, NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory (EPA grant), Michigan Department of Natural Resources (EPA grant), Northeast Climate Science Center, and National Science Foundation.
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
Computational resources were provided through NCAR and the Teragrid from the University of Texas at Austin and the University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign. Questions/comments should be addressed to Michael Notaro at mnotaro@wisc.edu.
Developers
The dynamical downscaling of climate projections was performed by Drs. Val Bennington and Yafang Zhong. The analysis, map production, and website development was performed by Dr. Michael Notaro. All three scientists are/were employed within the Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin–Madison.